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All elections matter. Too often, the Tories or Reform win because people like us don't show up.
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VOTING TOGETHER GIVES US MORE POLITICAL POWER
Millions of people could vote tactically at this year's elections. A big proportion of voters showing up mainly to prevent the right from seizing power. Register as a tactical voter by joining the Movement Forward and we can prove it. Then together we'll tell the new government how they truly can earn our votes next time.
Tactical Advice Explainer
(MS for Caerphilly)
We've manually set advice for this Senedd seat.
Our advice was originally based on the factors listed below. Since then, our recommendation has been backed up by a voting intention poll of the seat from Survation. This shows Reform UK on 42%, Plaid Cymru on 38% and Labour on 12% (with Greens on 3% and Lib Dems on 1%). This is strong evidence that our advice is correct.
Other factors indicate that only a vote for Plaid Cymru can stop Reform in this by-election:
- A lot has changed since the Caerphilly Senedd election result in 2021, and the Caerphilly Westminster election result in 2024 meaning these are no longer a valid indication of where the tactical vote should go.
- The emergence of Reform as a major political force since the previous elections. The changes in support, as measured by opinion polls, for other parties since then, in particular the significant decline in support for both the Conservatives and Labour, and the increase in support for Plaid Cymru, including evidence of significant switch from Labour to Plaid Cymru.
- The fall in Labour Party support has been most significant in the parts of Wales where Reform are strongest, with Labour's vote being eroded by Reform in a way that has not happened to the other parties. This makes Plaid the natural progressive challenger in Caerphilly.
- All the bookmakers have Reform and Plaid Cymru as the front runners.
- A number of recent polls which use the MRP methodology also suggest a tight race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in Caerphilly.
- Divisions in the local Labour Party that may hamper their ability to mobilise significant numbers of local activists, as demonstrated by the resignation of the local Council Leader and his endorsement of the Plaid Cymru candidate.
- Information obtained from independent sources within the constituency about the intensity of visible campaigning (in terms of leaflets, canvassing and posters) suggests Plaid Cymru are running the best on the ground campaign.
Sorry, we haven't been able to find previous election results here.
No data for the last election
We don't have any result data for the previous election. Perhaps the seat has changed name or it's a new seat?
Please reach out on social media if you have some data!