This page explains our methodology for the General Election 2024.
To see our methodology for local elections, click here.
Our Objectives
- Get the Tories out!
- Help voters influence the next government.
Rather than let the think tanks & press barons lead the agenda - Support a diversity of voices & parties in parliament.
- Promote a better voting system so:
Politicians are accountable
All votes count equally
Tactical voting is unnecessary - Stop having to make this site every election!
StopTheTories.Vote and TacticalVote.co.uk
StopTheTories has partnered with TacticalVote.co.uk to make sure we have the most robust data and recommendations for the 2024 general election.
In 2017, the UK's first ever tactical voting website known as "Tactical2017" was launched after a simple spreadsheet with tactical voting advice went viral. Rebranded as "TacticalVote.co.uk" in the 2019 election, the website has helped millions of people find out how to vote to prevent the Tories from winning in their seat, and in the 2019 general election it was the UK's most accurate tactical voting website, with 99.5% accuracy.
StopTheTories launched in 2023, and was the first website to give tactical voting advice for local elections - in May 2023 and May 2024.
Our Methodology
1 - We collate data from various sources to calculate our recommendations:
- Parliamentary boundaries have changed since 2019, so we cannot use the actual 2019 constituency results. Instead we use the implied 2019 results for new boundaries based on Sky, BBC etc research.
- We take a simple average of MRPs from well-respected pollsters which have been run since the election was called. We include the latest MRP from each pollster (it may take us a few days to integrate new polling into our advice). You can see the exact polls we are currently using on our data page.
- We look at any lists parties publish about the seats they are targetting (or seats they are not targetting). You can see the exact data sources we are using for this on our data page
2 - Using this data, we automatically judge every seat in Great Britain:
We don't currently make recommendations in Northern Ireland
Could the Tories realistically win this seat?
If the Tory party was significantly behind the top progressive party in the 2019 implied results, and the Tory votes plus the Reform UK votes are significantly behind the top progressive party in the average of recent MRPs, and the Tory party has a low vote share in the average of recent MRPs, then we assume this seat cannot be realistically won by the Tory party (or Reform UK, who are also a regressive party).
If any of the above are not true, we assume the Tory party could potentially win the seat.
Is there a clear lead progressive party in this seat?
We look for the progressive party with the biggest implied vote share in 2019, the progressive party with the biggest vote share in the average of recent MRPs, and whether this is a target (or non-target) seat for any of the progressive parties.
If all of the above agree, then there is a clear lead progressive party in the seat. If any of the above do not agree, then we err on the side of uncertainty.
3 - Having automatically judged every seat, we then publish advice using the following flow chart:
4 - In seats where automatic advice cannot be given, or where we have specific local intelligence, we may manually override the advice:
- We always make it clear on the website and in our published data when we have made a manual override.
- We always cite the reasons for manually overriding advice.
- When making a decision about whether to manually override, and the advice to give, we will look at various other data, including but not limited to:
- Statistically significant local polling by respected pollsters
- Recent local election results in the parliamentary seat in question
- Any recent parliamentary byelection in the seat in question
- Historical voting patterns in the seat in question
Methodology FAQ
Why aren't you using the actual 2019 results?
Westminster constituency boundaries were reviewed in 2023, and therefore many constituencies now have new geographic boundaries. Some constituencies have been abolished entirely and some new constituencies have been created.
The 2019 general election was fought using the old constituencies and boundaries, and these results cannot be easily mapped onto the new constituency boundaries. However, Sky & the BBC commissioned research which estimates the vote share each party would have achieved in 2019 using the new constituency boundaries. We use these implied 2019 results in our methodology (see above).
Why aren't you using byelection results?
Byelections tend to have low turnout compared to general elections, and parties may be able to dedicate more resources to fighting a byelection campaign, because they&re only fighting byelections in a small number of constituencies at any one time.
Byelections will still also be using the old constituency boundaries, which means byelection results can be difficult to map directly onto the constituency boundaries which the 2024 election will be fought on.
In constituencies where we manually override our automated advice, we will consider any relevant byelection results.
Why aren't you using council election results?
Council elections tend to have low turnout compared to general elections, and the issues they are fought on can be significantly different from those which are the focus in general elections.
In constituencies where we manually override our automated advice, we will consider any relevant council election results.
For questions not related to our methodology, please see our main FAQ page.