A tactical voting tool by Forward Democracy

We've manually set advice for this Parliamentary seat.

This recommendation has been made after carefully considering a number of factors:

(1) A properly conducted Constituency Opinion Poll carried out by Omnisis who are a member of the British Polling Council of 452 voters in Gorton and Denton on 13 Feb 2026 - 19 Feb 2026. The poll was commissioned by a third-party (Opal) which has supported the Greens, but the polling appears to have properly conducted without any sign of bias or error. The results indicate that – while it is currently a tight three-way contest - the Greens have the best chance of beating Reform for the following reasons.

(a) The Greens are slightly ahead of Reform with Labour in a close third. After excluding the Don’t Knows and Non-Voters, the figures are 33% Green, 29% Reform and 26% Labour. Although the gaps are within the margin of error, there is a higher probability of the Greens being ahead of Reform than Labour being ahead.

(b) When Labour and Green voters were asked if they were willing to vote tactically for the Greens or for Labour respectively, if it was obvious that only the other party could beat Reform, a majority of each party’s supporters would indeed lend their vote to do so (which proves that Reform WILL be beaten if tactical voting occurs. However, significantly more Labour supporters were willing to switch to voting Green to beat Reform, than Green supporters were willing to vote Labour to beat Reform. A tactical vote for the Greens is therefore clearly an “easier sell”.

(c) The greater resistance (of a significant minority) of Green supporters to vote tactically for Labour has been clearly identified in large scale national polling most recently by YouGov in mid-February as shown here.

(2) A similar-sized and conducted poll commissioned by us (Forward Democracy), which will be published soon by the Byline Times, is consistent with the Omnisis Poll, in relation to there being a tight three-way contest with the Greens slightly ahead of Labour, and a marked increased willingness of Labour supporters to vote tactically for the Green candidate to beat Reform, compared to the willingness of Green supporters to vote Labour to beat Reform. [It has been suggested, with good evidence, that this “reluctance gap” for Green and Lib Dem supporters to vote tactically for Labour is a consequence of some policies and rhetoric of the Labour Government which appear to be an attempt to appeal to right-leaning voters, and which is counter-productive.]

(3) The fact that the Greens have been able to put in the resources to run as full a by-election campaign as the Labour Party, and there is no difference discernible to the voters between the intensity of the Green and Labour campaigns despite Labour’s established strength in the Region.

It is important to stress that the recommendations was NOT based on the following factors which are either poor evidence for tactical voting or positively misleading. (i) MRP projections (which are based on national polling and local demographic factors) which are of little relevance to a by-election situation (ii) Projections from the July 2024 General Election result in Gorton and Denton, based on a uniform national swing – which are inappropriate in a by-election situation (iii) Polls with tiny samples (eg below 200) (iv) Released or “leaked” canvas data from the parties themselves (v) Quotations from academics (usually taken out of context) allegedly in support a candidate or a tactical voting suggestion (vi) The number of posters up at any point (vii) Whichever party Reform identifies as its main opponent (viii) Social media activity (ad spend or views) (ix) Bookies odds, which - in a small market - can be affected by the placing of bets designed to move the odds (ix) “vibes”

Labour won the last election

Reform UK came 2nd

Green came 3rd

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